The Soria Debate

Since 2007, Royals closer Joakim Soria has been among the elite relief pitchers in all of baseball. A 2006 Rule 5 Draft selection from the San Diego Padres, Soria burst onto the scene in 2007 and became closer Octavio Dotel's primary setup man. After Dotel was traded to the Braves at the trading deadline, Soria took over the closer duties and ended up leading American League rookie pitchers in saves. He also placed 2nd in WHIP and strikeouts-per-nine innings pitched, 3rd in strikeout-to-walk ratio and 5th in ERA.

In 2008, "The Mexicutioner" was born, as Soria continued his dominance in his second pro season. He saved 42 games for a 75-win Royals team and his microscopic 1.60 ERA placed 3rd in the league among pitchers with at least 60 innings of work. Perhaps most impressive was that opposing hitters managed only a .503 OPS against him; only the legendary Mariano Rivera was better.



In many ways, Soria in 2009 has picked up where he left off. He has saved 20 games for a bad Royals team and has boosted his K/9 and K/BB figures in the process. However, the Royals have reached a critical juncture with their 25-year-old closer, and must re-evaluate his present value to the team. When the quality of Soria's innings is taken into account, it is clear that he is not being utilized enough. Below are Soria's 2009 numbers:

 G     IP     ERA     WHIP     K/9     K/BB
33   37.2    2.15     0.98   11.23     4.70

The next table shows Soria's 2009 American League ranking in those categories among relievers with at least 20 innings pitched:

   G     IP     ERA     WHIP     K/9    K/BB
66th   63rd    11th      5th     8th     5th

Before getting into those numbers, I have to be fair. Soria was placed on the 15-day disabled list with a right rotator cuff strain on May 10 and wasn't activated until June 2, so he missed about a month. The injury also may have prevented him from pitching in tight ballgames before he was placed on the DL. That's thanks to the curious decisions of the Royals medical staff, but that's a whole other issue I won't get into in this article

But just look at that. It's criminal. The Royals have one of the 10 best relievers in the league, and have not used him as such. In fact, Soria has appeared in fewer games than Jamey Wright, Juan Cruz, Ron Mahay and John Bale, all of whom have hurt the team's pitching more than they've helped.



Things haven't been much better since the start of August, as Soria has appeared in only five games and thrown just eight innings. The number of innings would be even lower, but manager Trey Hillman lately has shown an increased willingness to use him for six outs, which was not the case earlier this season.

So what should the Royals do about it? How can Soria most help them? As I see it, they have three choices:

1) Keep him in the bullpen
2) Make him a starting pitcher
3) Trade him

The first choice is not a good one unless they commit to letting him pitch on a more regular basis, or as a "fireman" like Dan Quisenberry. Given the way modern-day baseball is designed, that probably won't happen and he will continue to pitch only in save situations.

The second choice is particularly intriguing, especially since Soria once threw a perfect game in the Mexican League. However, the Royals seem terrified that his shoulder issues from 2007 and this year will pop up more often with an increased workload.

I can't say I blamed them for that fear before this season, but it's painfully clear the Royals aren't going to have many 9th-inning leads to protect in the near future. So isn't Joakim Soria, starting pitcher, worth a shot?

It isn't like the rotation is in perfect shape anyway. After a solid front three of Zack Greinke, Gil Meche and Brian Bannister, there are several question marks. Luke Hochevar has shown flashes of brilliance but remains, as Joe Morgan would say, inconsistent. And after a promising end to 2008, Kyle Davies has taken several steps back this year and may be running out of time to prove himself. Adding Soria has the potential to help a lot more than it could hurt.

This reminds me of Johan Santana's situation with the Twins earlier this decade. Like Soria, Santana was a Rule 5 Draft selection. Despite thoroughly dominating the American League in his early 20s, the Twins allowed their stud lefthander to waste away in the bullpen in 2002 and 2003 because they didn't believe in him as a starting pitcher. Finally, Santana entered the rotation in 2004 as a 25-year-old, the same age Soria is now. He has since won two Cy Young awards and has finished among the top-10 vote getters for the award for the past six seasons.

I'm not saying Soria will definitely reach Santana's level of success; such a thing is a lot to ask of any pitcher. I just think they are similar enough to make the case that it could work.

If the Royals won't go down that road, that leaves the third option, which is to trade him while his value is extremely high. This is something I think general manager Dayton Moore should have explored prior to the trading deadline, but according to Jayson Stark, it's not too late to get something done this season. Stark reported the Royals placed Soria on trade waivers this week.

Of course, to be traded before the winter, Soria must clear waivers or the Royals will have to work out a deal with a claiming team. Neither of which is likely to happen.

While some may argue that trading a young reliever who is among the ten best pitchers in the league is counterproductive, I believe it may be appropriate if Moore can maximize Soria's value to a contender seeking a closer. The Royals have no reason not to explore this option now or this winter. The price would be rather high; I would expect Moore to snag two or three ready-now prospects in return.

The whole situation puts the Royals in the catbird's seat. If a team meets the extremely high price, Soria is out, but a prized prospect like Philadelphia's Michael Taylor would immediately improve the lineup. If not, the Royals can hang onto their closer without much fear of his value dropping significantly.

I do not anticipate Soria's value falling much as a result of production unless he gets severely injured. No matter what, his inexpensive long-term contract will make him an attractive option. Courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts, Soria's contract breaks down as follows:

2009       $1M
2010       $3M
2011       $4M
2012       $6M*
2013       $8M*
2014    $8.75M*
---------------
TOTAL  $30.75M

*Club option

There are also $750,000 buyouts for each option year and a clause that escalates the value of the contract should Soria become a starting pitcher. Still, that contract for a player of Soria's caliber is a very good value for the Royals or any other ballclub.

Given the struggles the Royals have experienced this year, it is likely the team will not contend for at least a few more seasons. Therefore, the front office must re-evaluate how Joakim Soria can best help the organization. They can stay the course and maintain him as their closer, convert him to a starting pitcher, or maximize his value in a trade.

At this point, I believe the Royals must attempt to stretch him out with the intention of having him join the rotation next spring. Failing that, the next-best option is to trade him to a team seeking relief help. As it stands, the Royals are wasting him as their closer when they don't have many leads to protect anyway.

Hello again

First, a brief introduction for those who don't know me. I'm Kevin Agee, a Royals fan first and a journalism student at Missouri State University. Some of you may remember me from Kevin's Royals Blog (KRB). As you may or may not know, KRB has been dormant for most of the last two or three years following a two-year run of blogging I really enjoyed.

A little bit of retrospective: I had a lot of fun with KRB. In 2005, we begged the Royals to drop Ken Harvey in favor of Calvin Pickering, which they eventually did. At the time I thought it was a great success. Walks and power triumphed over batting average and grit. Unfortunately the fun was short-lived, but Pickering's reign as the Royals designated hitter was fun while it lasted. You know, the whole month of April, before he too was let go.

On a smaller scale, we marveled at the day the Royals started both Denny Hocking and Super Joe McEwing, eulogized the end of Tony Pena's managerial career, advocated the end to Terrence Long's reign of terror and looked forward to the day then-teenager Billy Butler would fulfill his promise at Kauffman Stadium. I am proud to say that one seems to be working out well for the Royals.

The reasons for ceasing the operation over there are numerous; I guess mostly I didn't enjoy writing about the Royals anymore. However, with the school year (and a whole bunch of writing) headed my way on Monday, I decided to get back into the Royals blogosphere with a new page: Cowtown. The idea is the same: Write about the Royals mostly, but also use this space for other fun stuff I like. It is hard to say how long this will last. It may last through the weekend, through the end of the month or past 2009. I just don't know.

However, what I do know is that the Royals are interesting enough to write about again, and that's the biggest reason why I'm here. Unfortunately they're not interesting because they've finally put a good product on the field. On the contrary, the organization seems to be in greater disarray than it was during the Baird regime. The difference is that the disarray under Dayton Moore is actually quite comical, especially when he makes questionable decisions and then calls out his team's fans in the press for doing the questioning.

Anyway, I look forward to joining the tremendous group of Royals bloggers in writing about this team we all wish we could just give up on already. You can also find me on Twitter @TryKevinToday. I'm a rookie blogger again. Feels good.

Game #73: Broomin' The Birds

Clearly annoyed that he had walked 11 batters in his last two outings, Zack Greinke decided to finish off the Royals sweep of the Cardinals in vintage Zack fashion. In seven innings of work, Greinke struck out seven, walked one, and allowed only two base hits. Using a fastball ranging from 88-97 mph and a sharp slider in the mid-80 mph range, Greinke struck out four of the first six hitters he faced, and didn't give up a hit until the fourth inning when Rick Ankiel hit a solo home run to right field.

After today's start, the 24-year-old right-hander is on pace to pitch 216 innings, strike out 160 batters, and post a 3.33 ERA, which would all be career-best totals. However, Greinke's 2008 success does not appear to have gone to his head. After the game, he yet again satisfied our thirst for a new Greinkeism:

“Maybe we don’t realize how good they are because we don’t get to face them that often,” Greinke said after combining with two relievers on a two-hitter in a 4-1 victory on Thursday. “We face American League teams all the time, so we know how good each team is.”

Can the Royals chalk up their 7-2 record against the National League to ignorance? Maybe, Zack. Maybe.

Other notes from the series finale ...

Greinke's outing was the latest in a fantastic run by the Royals starting rotation:

DATE   OPP   PITCHER    IP    ER   BB   SO
6/9    NYY   HOCHEVAR   6.2    2    0    4
6/10   TEX   MECHE      6      1    2    4
6/11   TEX   DAVIES     6      1    5    3
6/12   TEX   BANNISTER  7      4    0    4
6/13   ARZ   GREINKE    7      0    7    5
6/14   ARZ   HOCHEVAR   7      2    0    6
6/15   ARZ   MECHE      7.1    3    1   10
6/17   STL   DAVIES     7      1    3    4
6/18   STL   BANNISTER  7      2    0    1
6/19   STL   GREINKE    7      1    1    7
-------------------------------------------
TOTAL                  68     17   19   48

For those of you keeping score at home, those ten starts amount to a 2.25 ERA and, more importantly, seven Royals victories. Luke Hochevar has been the real star, as the former first-overall draft pick hasn't walked a single batter in his last two outings. With Hochevar, Greinke, Gil Meche, Brian Bannister, and Kyle Davies, it seems that the Royals have solidified their starting rotation for the short-term.

With his 2-4 day at the plate Thursday, shortstop Mike Aviles hiked his season average to .321, and his OPS to .987 in 53 at-bats. Although he didn't become the everyday shortstop until June 6, Aviles has already outperformed the man he replaced, Tony Pena, Jr., by a wide margin.

In spite of having roughly one-third of the number of at-bats Pena received, Aviles has already eclipsed him in doubles, home runs, and total bases, and will soon overtake him in runs, hits, triples, and runs batted in. Although the 27-year-old Aviles will probably see his numbers come back down to earth, it's still baffling that it took the Royals and manager Trey Hillman so long to remove Pena and his brutal .345 OPS from the starting lineup. However, it appears that Hillman finally understands that his ballclub badly needed more offense from the shortstop position:

"He's done a good job. Consistent contact. He's not an easy strikeout, not swinging out of the zone a whole lot," manager Trey Hillman said.

As long as the Royals don't use an Aviles slump at the plate as an excuse to put Pena back in the everyday lineup, they'll have improved their chances of winning by using Pena as a defensive sub late in ballgames.

Now that the Royals have significantly reduced Pena's playing time, first baseman Ross Gload has to be next. Signed to a regrettable two-year contract this past offseason, Gload has simply been terrible all season long, as the 32-year-old has managed only a .547 OPS at a position that demands power and run production. Fortunately, Billy Butler has destroyed Triple-A pitching, so Gload's time may be running out.

After completing their 5-1 roadtrip, the Royals head home for a nine-game homestand that begins with a weekend series against the Giants. Quite obviously, this is the time for the Royals to try to climb back to within striking distance of .500.

Cardinal Carnage

Apparently Zack Greinke was listening when we said that today would be a good time to launch Cowtown, as he thoroughly dominated the Cardinals on two hits through seven innings. Ramon Ramirez and Joakim Soria finished off the sweep with a scoreless inning apiece.

Hey St. Louis ... not so tough without Albert Pujols, are ya? More thoughts later, friends.

Cowtown's First

From us (People who aren't very good at introductions), to you (The fans, and hopefully, our regular readers):

Welcome to Cowtown, where we are celebrating the Royals taking the first two games of the 2008 I-70 Series. With any luck, we'll be celebrating much bigger wins in the very near future. Optimism rules.

Here at Cowtown, we will write, write, and then write some more about the Royals. That means you'll read stuff about the Major League club, the minor league affiliates, and what the front office is doing to improve both. We might even suggest (numerous times) that Ross Gload should be released. You'll have to stick around to find out.

Anyhoo, we're going to have a lot of fun, and we would be honored if you joined us along the way. Thursday would be good place to begin. Zack. Yes.