In 2008, "The Mexicutioner" was born, as Soria continued his dominance in his second pro season. He saved 42 games for a 75-win Royals team and his microscopic 1.60 ERA placed 3rd in the league among pitchers with at least 60 innings of work. Perhaps most impressive was that opposing hitters managed only a .503 OPS against him; only the legendary Mariano Rivera was better.
In many ways, Soria in 2009 has picked up where he left off. He has saved 20 games for a bad Royals team and has boosted his K/9 and K/BB figures in the process. However, the Royals have reached a critical juncture with their 25-year-old closer, and must re-evaluate his present value to the team. When the quality of Soria's innings is taken into account, it is clear that he is not being utilized enough. Below are Soria's 2009 numbers:
G IP ERA WHIP K/9 K/BB
33 37.2 2.15 0.98 11.23 4.70
The next table shows Soria's 2009 American League ranking in those categories among relievers with at least 20 innings pitched:
G IP ERA WHIP K/9 K/BB
66th 63rd 11th 5th 8th 5th
Before getting into those numbers, I have to be fair. Soria was placed on the 15-day disabled list with a right rotator cuff strain on May 10 and wasn't activated until June 2, so he missed about a month. The injury also may have prevented him from pitching in tight ballgames before he was placed on the DL. That's thanks to the curious decisions of the Royals medical staff, but that's a whole other issue I won't get into in this article
But just look at that. It's criminal. The Royals have one of the 10 best relievers in the league, and have not used him as such. In fact, Soria has appeared in fewer games than Jamey Wright, Juan Cruz, Ron Mahay and John Bale, all of whom have hurt the team's pitching more than they've helped.
Things haven't been much better since the start of August, as Soria has appeared in only five games and thrown just eight innings. The number of innings would be even lower, but manager Trey Hillman lately has shown an increased willingness to use him for six outs, which was not the case earlier this season.
So what should the Royals do about it? How can Soria most help them? As I see it, they have three choices:
1) Keep him in the bullpen
2) Make him a starting pitcher
3) Trade him
The first choice is not a good one unless they commit to letting him pitch on a more regular basis, or as a "fireman" like Dan Quisenberry. Given the way modern-day baseball is designed, that probably won't happen and he will continue to pitch only in save situations.
The second choice is particularly intriguing, especially since Soria once threw a perfect game in the Mexican League. However, the Royals seem terrified that his shoulder issues from 2007 and this year will pop up more often with an increased workload.
I can't say I blamed them for that fear before this season, but it's painfully clear the Royals aren't going to have many 9th-inning leads to protect in the near future. So isn't Joakim Soria, starting pitcher, worth a shot?
It isn't like the rotation is in perfect shape anyway. After a solid front three of Zack Greinke, Gil Meche and Brian Bannister, there are several question marks. Luke Hochevar has shown flashes of brilliance but remains, as Joe Morgan would say, inconsistent. And after a promising end to 2008, Kyle Davies has taken several steps back this year and may be running out of time to prove himself. Adding Soria has the potential to help a lot more than it could hurt.
This reminds me of Johan Santana's situation with the Twins earlier this decade. Like Soria, Santana was a Rule 5 Draft selection. Despite thoroughly dominating the American League in his early 20s, the Twins allowed their stud lefthander to waste away in the bullpen in 2002 and 2003 because they didn't believe in him as a starting pitcher. Finally, Santana entered the rotation in 2004 as a 25-year-old, the same age Soria is now. He has since won two Cy Young awards and has finished among the top-10 vote getters for the award for the past six seasons.
I'm not saying Soria will definitely reach Santana's level of success; such a thing is a lot to ask of any pitcher. I just think they are similar enough to make the case that it could work.
If the Royals won't go down that road, that leaves the third option, which is to trade him while his value is extremely high. This is something I think general manager Dayton Moore should have explored prior to the trading deadline, but according to Jayson Stark, it's not too late to get something done this season. Stark reported the Royals placed Soria on trade waivers this week.
Of course, to be traded before the winter, Soria must clear waivers or the Royals will have to work out a deal with a claiming team. Neither of which is likely to happen.
While some may argue that trading a young reliever who is among the ten best pitchers in the league is counterproductive, I believe it may be appropriate if Moore can maximize Soria's value to a contender seeking a closer. The Royals have no reason not to explore this option now or this winter. The price would be rather high; I would expect Moore to snag two or three ready-now prospects in return.
The whole situation puts the Royals in the catbird's seat. If a team meets the extremely high price, Soria is out, but a prized prospect like Philadelphia's Michael Taylor would immediately improve the lineup. If not, the Royals can hang onto their closer without much fear of his value dropping significantly.
I do not anticipate Soria's value falling much as a result of production unless he gets severely injured. No matter what, his inexpensive long-term contract will make him an attractive option. Courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts, Soria's contract breaks down as follows:
2009 $1M
2010 $3M
2011 $4M
2012 $6M*
2013 $8M*
2014 $8.75M*
---------------
TOTAL $30.75M
*Club option
There are also $750,000 buyouts for each option year and a clause that escalates the value of the contract should Soria become a starting pitcher. Still, that contract for a player of Soria's caliber is a very good value for the Royals or any other ballclub.
Given the struggles the Royals have experienced this year, it is likely the team will not contend for at least a few more seasons. Therefore, the front office must re-evaluate how Joakim Soria can best help the organization. They can stay the course and maintain him as their closer, convert him to a starting pitcher, or maximize his value in a trade.
At this point, I believe the Royals must attempt to stretch him out with the intention of having him join the rotation next spring. Failing that, the next-best option is to trade him to a team seeking relief help. As it stands, the Royals are wasting him as their closer when they don't have many leads to protect anyway.
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